Good morning and welcome to The Closer, where we turn complex deals into stories you'll actually understand.
In the next 10 minutes, you'll understand why Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's Beijing trip this week could reshape tech M&A for the next decade.
Here's what's making waves:
- Huang lands in China for a rare briefing while Trump's 30% tariff bomb ticks down (17 days left), creating the ultimate diplomatic high-wire act.
- We decode what this means for the $16 billion in Chinese GPU orders hanging in the balance.
- Plus: Tuesday's inflation data could unlock Fed rate cuts, banking titans JPMorgan and Citi reveal their loan books, TSMC earnings expose the real AI demand picture.
Plus your tactical edge: A negotiation move that cuts deadlocks by 24% — the surprising power of offering three options instead of one.
Monday Smart-Start | 14 July 2025
Numbers and talking points to look like the prepared one at 9 a.m.
GLOBAL INDICES
COMMODITIES & CURRENCIES
*Week-to-date moves as of Friday close. Source: Market data providers
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WEEK AHEAD
July 14-20: China Trade, U.S. CPI & NVIDIA's Beijing Brief
MONDAY 14 JULY
- China's June trade numbers land overnight. They're the first hard look at Chinese demand—and at how many U.S.-made parts are still slipping through export curbs. A surprise jump or dip in imports can sway commodity prices before Europe even wakes up. Trading Economics
- Finance ministers from the G-20 open a five-day meeting in Johannesburg. Expect emerging-market voices to push back against Washington's new tariff threats—useful mood music if you hedge in EM currencies. G20
- In London, newly minted Chancellor Rachel Reeves gives her Mansion House speech after the market close. She is tipped to outline looser rules for pension funds and the City. Any hint of lighter regulation could lower funding costs for domestic deals. Global Regulation Tomorrow
TUESDAY 15 JULY
- The U.S. Consumer Price Index for June hits at 8:30 a.m. New York (13:30 BST). It is the most-watched inflation gauge; a soft reading would keep talk of a Federal Reserve rate cut alive and make dollar funding cheaper. FRED
- The U.S. earnings season kicks off: JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and BlackRock all report before the bell. Listen for comments on loan demand and credit losses—early clues to how much leverage banks will extend in the second half.
WEDNESDAY 16 JULY
- UK inflation arrives at 7 a.m. A print closer to 3% could open the door to a Bank of England rate cut later this summer and trim sterling borrowing costs.
- All eyes then turn to Beijing, where Nvidia chief Jensen Huang holds a rare press briefing. With Washington tightening chip export rules, investors want to know whether Nvidia will unveil a "China-friendly" processor—and how that might keep revenue flowing without angering U.S. regulators. Reuters, Yahoo Finance
THURSDAY 17 JULY
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) posts second-quarter earnings before Asian markets open. Because TSMC prints nearly every advanced chip Nvidia designs, its capacity outlook is a leading indicator for global AI spending. Reuters
- In the U.S., retail-sales data and import-export prices arrive. Together they show whether higher tariffs are lifting store-shelf prices yet—vital for consumer-goods mergers in the pipeline.
FRIDAY 18 JULY
- Goldman Sachs reports results before Wall Street opens. Its advisory fees are the closest thing to a pulse check on global M&A appetite.
- The European Commission faces a preliminary deadline to decide whether it needs a deeper probe into Universal Music's $775 million takeover of Downtown Music. A Phase-II referral would cool enthusiasm for other roll-ups in music distribution.
WEEKEND
- SATURDAY: U.S. Treasury Secretary Jane Bessent addresses the Osaka World Expo. Any off-the-cuff remarks about tariff carve-outs could jolt Asia-Pacific currencies when markets reopen Sunday night.
- SUNDAY: No flagship data are scheduled, but energy desks will watch for surprise consultations among OPEC+ ministers ahead of their early-August meeting. A hint of extra supply could push oil prices lower—and change the maths for transport or heavy-industry deals announced next week.
This Week's Focus: Watch the Beijing-Washington semiconductor showdown unfold as Nvidia's Huang faces Chinese regulators while TSMC earnings reveal AI's true demand picture.
Surveillance
- Trade brinkmanship: President Trump doubled down on 30 % blanket tariffs for EU & Mexico, effective 1 Aug. Companies have 17 days to reroute supply chains or face fatter landed-costs. Reuters
- Inflation litmus test: U.S. CPI (Tue) is the first big data point after the tariff volley; a soft print would keep September-rate-cut chatter alive.
- Bankers on deck: JPMorgan, Citi, Wells Fargo and BlackRock open earnings season Tuesday. Watch loan-loss outlooks; they set the ceiling for Q3 LBO leverage. Wall Street Journal
- Deal pulse: Santander’s £2.65 bn swoop on TSB tees up a fresh UK retail-bank shake-out; BBVA’s hostile bid for Sabadell suddenly looks tougher. Reuters
When Jensen goes to China, he dresses much ... differently. Why? Read below.
Jensen Huang Goes to China — and the Stakes Are Silicon-Deep
When Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang steps onto a stage in Beijing this week, it won’t just be another product pitch. It’s a high-stakes diplomatic dance — one that could reveal the future shape of U.S.–China tech relations, and set the tone for how corporate America navigates a second Trump administration.
Huang, the charismatic, leather-jacketed co-founder of Nvidia, has become the face of the AI boom. His company’s chips power everything from ChatGPT to autonomous weapons — a dominance that has turned Nvidia into a $3 trillion titan and a central player in the most strategic industry on Earth.
But that same power has made the company — and its CEO — a pressure point in the escalating U.S.–China rivalry. Over the past two years, Washington has cracked down hard on exports of advanced semiconductors, citing national security risks. Nvidia has been forced to redesign its most powerful chips to comply, creating slower, cut-down versions for the Chinese market. Yet China still made up 13% of Nvidia’s sales last year — a share too large to abandon, too risky to defend without scrutiny.
That’s what makes Huang’s Beijing trip so charged. He’s expected to meet with officials and brief reporters. The optics alone — an American CEO extending a hand in a moment of deep geopolitical strain — are a test of how far commercial diplomacy can stretch before snapping.
It’s not lost on observers that just before flying to China, Huang quietly met with Donald Trump. The president has floated a blanket 60% tariff on Chinese goods and called for an even tougher stance on strategic technologies.
So why go now?
Because Huang is playing the long game. His China visit is a message to both governments: Nvidia wants to keep supplying the world, not just the West. For Beijing, his presence signals that even amid rising walls, some bridges still stand. For Washington, it’s a test case: can American firms operate in China without fueling adversaries?
The implications ripple far beyond Nvidia. If Huang succeeds in threading the needle — keeping regulators, investors, and customers satisfied — it sets a precedent for how the rest of Silicon Valley might engage with an increasingly bipolar world.
But if he stumbles? Expect retaliation, not just from regulators, but from markets. Shares of Nvidia — and possibly its Chinese rivals — will respond fast. So will policy hawks in Washington and Beijing, who are eager to claim either betrayal or vindication.
Jensen Huang isn’t just selling GPUs anymore. He’s navigating a geopolitical tripwire — and what he says, or doesn’t say, in Beijing this week could shape the next phase of the U.S.–China tech cold war.
INVESTMENT ANALYSIS
Weekly Watch: NVIDIA Export Controls
VC / Growth
WHAT TO WATCH
Any hint of a China-compliant CUDA roadmap
TRADE ANGLE
Re-price Chinese AI-model startups that live or die on Nvidia's stack
PE / M&A
WHAT TO WATCH
Talks of local manufacturing, joint packaging lines
TRADE ANGLE
Scope joint ventures that could dodge future export bins
Public Markets
WHAT TO WATCH
Tone on FY26 China revenue share
TRADE ANGLE
Options skew on NVDA and Asian foundry names
Key Insight: Watch for divergent signals across investment strategies as export controls reshape the semiconductor landscape.
MIX
IT UP
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INSIGHT
Give options, gain insight
Across 250 real-world negotiations, offering three equally valuable packages cut deadlocks by 24% and let the offer-maker take home 12% more. When people pick a bundle, they reveal what they truly care about.
Closer Tactic #51 • Everyday Dealcraft
The Nugget:
Don't corner someone with a single "take-it-or-leave-it". Put three different deals on the table that cost you the same. Their choice flags which levers—price, timing, extras—matter most.
How to deploy:
- Build three bundles that land at the same net value for you.
- Mix the ingredients: think price vs. warranty, speed vs. service, cash now vs. payments later.
- Watch their pick and reshuffle terms around the priorities they just revealed.
Takeaway:
Turning one rigid offer into a trio of choices transforms haggling into fact-finding—and arms you for the final carve-up.
If you love The Closer, you’ll also love Whale Hunting, where the team at Project Brazen explore the hidden world of money and power every week.
