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Good morning, it’s Monday, June 9, 2025. We’ve got a loaded week ahead with fresh megadeals and market-moving events – from a Big Tech giant’s $10 billion AI gambit to a telecom mega-merger and a one-stop housing empire – plus make-or-break policy moments and a splashy Apple showcase to super-charge your week before the bell.

Deal Radar

Meta Eyes $10 Billion+ Stake in Scale AI
Quick Take:
 Meta Platforms is in advanced talks to pour more than $10 billion into San Francisco-based unicorn Scale AI, a move that would instantly give Mark Zuckerberg inside access to one of the Valley’s hottest model-training pipelines (Bloomberg 1).
Longer Take: After open-sourcing its Llama models, Meta wants privileged silicon and data to stay competitive with OpenAI and Google. Scale already labels sensitive data for the Pentagon and NVIDIA; Meta’s cash (rumored as part primary, part secondary) would push Scale’s valuation north of $35 billion and leave founder Alexandr Wang with rare negotiating leverage. Watch fellow hyperscalers—especially Amazon and Microsoft—scramble to secure their own dedicated AI training supply as GPU scarcity bites.

Charter and Cox Form a $35 B Cable Colossus
Quick Take:
 Charter Communications is merging with privately-held Cox Communications in a $34.5 billion deal, creating the largest U.S. cable and broadband provider by subscribers (Axios 13). Cox’s owners (the Cox family) will get about 23% of the combined company plus $4 billion cash, effectively bringing Cox into Charter’s public fold.
Longer Take: It’s a game-changing union in telecom: combining Charter (No. 2 in cable) with Cox (the biggest regional player still independent) to better fend off telco and streaming rivals. The new giant – to eventually rebrand under the Cox Communications name – would serve roughly 36 million broadband subscribers, topping Comcast’s ~32 million. Executives pitch the merger as a scale play to improve networks and onshore jobs, promising to bring overseas call-center roles back to the U.S. and invest more in next-gen infrastructure. Yet the reality is some overlap will mean layoffstoo, and consumers have long complained about big cable’s service – so will bigger be better? Regulators are sure to scrutinize this colossus, but notably the companies have minimal geographic overlap (each dominates different cities), which could help their case. The political winds may also favor the deal: insiders say Comcast is mulling challenges, but with the current administration seen as unfriendly to Comcast, it may have limited sway in D.C. If approved (a process that could take a year or more), the Charter–Cox combo would effectively turn the U.S. cable internet market into a duopoly alongside Comcast. The big question: can two giants innovating (and perhaps quietly coordinating) serve consumers well, or will regulators regret letting the industry narrow to a few behemoths? For now, scale is king in cable, and Charter is betting that doubling up is the way to reign.

The Global Watchlist, Week-Ahead Calendar and more below …

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Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman

Rocket Grabs Redfin (and More) to Build a Housing Giant
Quick Take:
 Mortgage powerhouse Rocket Companies is acquiring online broker Redfin for $1.75 billion – and that’s just the start. Rocket also unveiled plans to buy Mr. Cooper (a major mortgage servicer) for $9.4 billion, aiming to create a vertically integrated home-buying empire from search to loan servicing (Reuters 14). Lawmakers are already up in arms: a group of U.S. senators is pressing antitrust enforcers on why they didn’t block the Redfin merger, warning it could hurt homebuyers.
Longer Take: Picture the entire home-buying process under one roof – that’s Rocket’s bold gambit. The Detroit-based parent of Rocket Mortgage (formerly Quicken Loans) already leads in online mortgage lending; by scooping up Redfin’s real estate search platform and Mr. Cooper’s loan servicing portfolio, Rocket wants to capture every link in the chain. In theory, a one-stop-shop could streamline home purchases (imagine finding a house on Redfin, getting a Rocket mortgage, and having Mr. Cooper service the loan – all within the same family). Rocket’s CEO touts potential efficiencies and cross-selling synergies in an industry ripe for tech-driven simplification. But consumer advocates and some politicians see red flags. Senators including Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders wrote to the DOJ and FTC last week, blasting Rocket’s maneuvers as creating a “massive, vertically integrated conglomerate” that may “reduce choice and raise prices” for American families. Indeed, if these deals close, Rocket would control the No. 2 U.S. mortgage originator, the No. 1 loan servicer, and a top-3 real estate listings site – an unprecedented grip on the market that could squeeze out independent realtors, smaller lenders, and fintech rivals. Homebuyers might face steeper costs if one giant effectively sets the terms. So far, regulators haven’t moved to block the mergers (vertical integrations typically get a lighter touch than direct competitor mergers), and Rocket insists consumers will benefit from an integrated experience. It’s a fascinating antitrust test case: Will enforcers sit by as “Amazonification” comes to housing, or step in to prevent a Zillow-meets-Wells-Fargo mashup? With Redfin’s shareholder vote passed and closing imminent, all eyes are on whether authorities impose any last-minute conditions – and whether Rocket’s grand experiment truly delivers a smoother home-buying journey or just a housing super-monopoly in the making.

Quick Hits ⚡

  • Industrial “Picks & Shovels” Merger – Cryogenic equipment maker Chart Industries is merging with flow-control veteran Flowserve in an all-stock deal valuing the combined company at about $19 billion. The pitch: own the boring but essential kit – pumps, valves, heat exchangers – that cool data centers and liquefy clean fuels. With AI server farms and hydrogen projects both ravenous for cooling, the new Chart-Flowserve backlog should give industrial investors a rare growth story (management is touting $300 million in synergies within three years).
  • Thames Water’s $13.5 B Rescue – Hedge funds Silver Point and Elliott Management have tabled a £10 billion-plus ($13.5 billion) lifeline for Thames Water, bundling a massive debt haircut with £3–4 billion of new equity. Years of under-investment, pollution fines and surging rates left the UK utility teetering toward nationalization. The creditor proposal would socialize part of the debt while keeping the company private – a novel template for saving an ESG-tainted, system-critical utility without a government bailout. Equity still needs regulatory blessing; U.K. watchdog Ofwat’s reaction (expected later this summer) will shape infrastructure risk premia for years to come.

Global Watchlist ⚡

Deal Watch

DEALS TO WATCH

This Week's Key Transactions

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ONGOING

Grab + GoTo

Indonesia's new sovereign wealth fund Danantara explores a minority stake in Grab's proposed $7B takeover of GoTo.

Why it Matters: Local capital could placate Jakarta's antitrust worries and keep a super-app champion onshore.

Target: Q2 2025

TUESDAY

SES / Intelsat EU Ruling

Brussels' deadline (Tue 10 Jun) for the $3.1B satellite merger; sources expect unconditional clearance.

Why it Matters: Green light would create a satellite powerhouse amid growing competition from SpaceX's Starlink.

WEDNESDAY

SLB–ChampionX UK Decision

UK regulator's Phase-1 decision due Wed 11 Jun on the $8B oil-services tie-up (remedies offered to ease competition fears).

Why it Matters: Major test for UK's post-Brexit merger regime on a mega-deal in the energy sector.

ALL WEEK

Circle (CRCL) Post-IPO Action

After doubling on day two, stablecoin issuer Circle (USDC) will start publishing daily reserve disclosures this week.

Why it Matters: Sets transparency precedent for crypto firms going public – daily disclosures could become the new standard.

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The Calendar 🗓️ — Key Macro & Market-Moving Events

Weekly Calendar

WEEKLY CALENDAR

Market-Moving Events Ahead

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MON 9 JUN

Apple WWDC 2025 keynote (10 a.m. PT)

US–China trade talks kick off in London

Forward Spin: Any AI or AR surprises could re-rate Apple's ecosystem; concessions in London could steady tariff-rocked supply chains.

TUE 10 JUN

EU verdict on SES–Intelsat (see above)

Forward Spin: Immediate read-through for European satellite players (consolidation vs. SpaceX pressure).

KEY DATA

WED 11 JUN

US May CPI (8:30 a.m. ET)

Forward Spin: Last inflation print before the Fed's blackout period – even a 0.1% miss could reset rate-cut odds into July.

THU 12 JUN

US 30-Year Treasury auction

Forward Spin: The "most unloved" tenor – watch the bid-to-cover ratio for clues if big buyers are stepping back in.

FRI 13 JUN

G7 Leaders' Summit begins (Puglia, Italy)

Forward Spin: Likely headlines on Russian asset-backed Ukraine aid and a coordinated stance on China's outbound investment curbs.

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Negotiation Nugget 🎯

Deploy the “Five Whys.” When a counterparty stakes out a position (“We need a 20% earn-out”), politely ask “Why?” – then keep asking “why” (up to five times).

Each response digs a layer deeper, often unearthing the real motivator (cash-flow timing, board optics, ego). Research shows dealmakers using iterative “why” questioning cut the average gap-to-agreement by 30% in controlled experiments.

The key is to keep the tone curious, not accusatory, and you’ll surface trade-offs no term sheet can hide. By the fifth “why,” you might discover that the 20% earn-out demand isn’t really about price at all, but about signaling confidence – insight that opens the door to creative concessions.

Micro-Chart 📈

Broadband Battle Chart

CHART OF THE WEEK

Broadband Battle: New Giant Emerges

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U.S. Broadband Subscribers (millions)

Charter–Cox NEW #1 36M

Combined entity edges out Comcast

Comcast 32M

Former leader drops to #2

Cable vs Telco Gap
AT&T ~15M

Distant third, pushing fiber expansion

Verizon ~7M

Focused on 5G home internet growth

THE BROADBAND REALITY

The duopoly towers over telco rivals in subscriber count. Both Charter and Comcast have recently seen subscriber losses as competition from fiber and 5G wireless heats up. With two giants now dominating cable internet, they'll be racing to roll out multi-gig speeds and pricey network upgrades, even as cord-cutting erodes their TV businesses.

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Open Thread 🤔

Will Rocket’s one-stop housing empire actually help homebuyers, or leave them with fewer options? Reply and let us know if you think combining a realtor, lender, and loan servicer under one roof is a boon or a red flag for the market. Or get in touch here.

If you love The Closer, you’ll also love Whale Hunting, where the team at Project Brazen explore the hidden world of money and power every week.

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