Good morning and welcome to The Closer, the newsletter all about deals. It’s Monday, July 7th, and the global deal landscape is shifting underfoot. This week, two major macro levers flip at once: a U.S.–China tariff freeze expires, and OPEC+ turns the crude taps back on. Import costs may jump, energy costs may fall — and the M&A calculus gets murky fast.
We break down what the “cliff + crude” moment means for pricing, modeling, and cross-border strategy. Plus: the Supreme Court rewrites the rules on agency power, several high-stakes bids heat up across Europe, Spain’s IPO window creaks back open — and we’ve got a fresh negotiation nugget on contingent contracts.
Let’s dive in.
WEEK AHEAD
July 7 – July 11 Calendar
Macro / Events
China FX reserves (Jun) • US Factory Orders (May 10 ET)
Deals & Reg Risk
Quiet docket
Markets
US re-opens after long weekend; light volumes likely
Macro / Events
RBA rate decision • NFIB Small-Biz Optimism (Jun) • US Consumer Credit (May)
Deals & Reg Risk
—
Markets
Amazon Prime Day begins (runs 8–11 Jul)
Macro / Events
China CPI / PPI (Jun) • US Wholesale Inventories (May) • FOMC Minutes (Jun mtg 14 ET)
US–China tariff freeze expires • OPEC International Seminar – Day 1
Deals & Reg Risk
Potential tariff snap-back impacts supply-chain M&A
Markets
Earnings: AZZ, Bassett Furniture
Macro / Events
US Initial Jobless Claims • Fed speakers (Musalem, Daly) • China Money & Credit (Jun) • OPEC Seminar – Day 2
Deals & Reg Risk
—
Markets
Earnings: Delta Air Lines, Conagra Brands, Levi Strauss
Macro / Events
UK GDP (May 07:00 BST) • US Federal Budget (Jun, after-market)
Amazon Prime Day wraps (23:59 PT)
Deals & Reg Risk
—
Markets
Calm before US Q2 earnings season kicks off next week
WEEK'S WATCHLIST
- RBA sets Asia-Pac rate tone
- US tariff deadline + FOMC minutes shape risk backdrop
- OPEC Seminar headlines post-output hike
- Prime Day gives early read on consumer demand
- Delta & Co kick off unofficial Q2 earnings season
- China inflation & credit prints vs. deflation narrative
- UK GDP offers first big G7 growth read for Q2
Cliff & Crude: The Two-Sided Macro Shock of Summer
If you’re modeling cross-border margins this quarter, beware: two macro levers just flipped.
The 90-day U.S.–China tariff freeze quietly expires this Wednesday, teeing up a return to 25% duties on a wide swath of consumer goods — including electronics, apparel, and appliances. At the same time, OPEC+ just authorized a 548,000 bpd output hike for August, a supply move big enough to nudge Brent back below $75 if global demand stays soft.
Alone, either event would tweak inflation expectations. Together, they create a whiplash setup: import costs rising, while energy costs fall. That’s bad news for simple CPI reads, and trickier still for deal teams calibrating acquisition targets’ input costs or discount rates.
For example: a US-based electronics distributor buying an Asian OEM now faces pricing ambiguity on both ends of the P&L. FX volatility, oil hedging, and tariff risk all come back into scope — just as deal appetite was finally thawing post-Q1.
This is also the moment where tariff-sheltering becomes an M&A driver again. We’ve seen it before: logistics rollups during the 2018 trade war, nearshoring plays in 2020–21. If duties snap back this week, expect a Q3 spike in interest for Mexican manufacturing, Southeast Asia sourcing, and U.S.-based add-ons that can claim “Made here” credibility.
The forward spin: this is the start of a policy-driven pricing regime — less predictable, more volatile, and more impactful on private-market models than headline CPI.
MARKET UPDATE
Tariff Front-Loading: Freight Spike Fades
MAY 10
$5.20k
Ocean FEU
CN→US WC
$4.65/kg
Air SEA→US
JUN 10
$6.00k
Ocean FEU
$5.00/kg
Air SEA→US
JUN 24
$5.70k
Ocean FEU
$5.25/kg
Air SEA→US
JUL 05
$5.54k
Ocean FEU
$5.17/kg
Air SEA→US
CONTAINER RATE ROUND-TRIP
↑ 15%
Front-load surge
↓ 8%
Early July fade
Importers rushed summer goods ahead of the July 9 tariff cliff, driving China→US West Coast container rates to $6,000/FEU by mid-June. Air cargo out of Southeast Asia also jumped ≈11 %, hitting $5.17/kg. With warehouses now stuffed, both lanes have already given back much of the spike.
Contrast that with the China→EU air lane, where rates slid 8 % over the same period. The divergence is a clean read on front-loading: shippers paid up on US-bound legs only.
If duties snap back this week, expect a second-round spike by late August as retailers scramble to replenish holiday inventory. If Washington kicks the can again, carriers could be staring at a premature peak season.
Regulation Reset: Supreme Court Shakes Up the Rulebook
A major legal shift just hit the regulatory landscape — and it’s one that dealmakers, GCs, and private equity funds will feel fast.
In a landmark June 27 ruling (Loper Bright v. Raimondo), the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Chevron deference, the 40-year-old doctrine that told courts to defer to federal agencies when interpreting ambiguous laws. That precedent had long given agencies like the FTC, SEC, and EPA wide latitude to act without Congressional micromanagement. Now, that cushion is gone.
What it means: courts no longer have to take an agency’s word for it — which could lead to more lawsuits, slower approvals, and greater uncertainty around everything from merger clearance to ESG disclosure.
The timing matters: the ruling arrives just as the SEC’s climate disclosure rules (paused earlier this year) head toward a final public comment deadline (July 12). Legal analysts expect a wave of challenges using this new ruling as ammo. Likewise, active merger fights — including Mars–Kellanova and JetBlue–Spirit — may now cite Loper Bright to argue that regulators overstepped.
For dealmakers, this changes the playbook:
- Closing timelines may stretch as more regulatory decisions are litigated.
- R&W insurance and break fees may rise to account for new legal exposure.
- Venue shopping becomes real — expect filings in courts seen as less agency-friendly.
The forward spin: regulators just lost their biggest legal shield. In a post-Chevron world, every agency rule is more challengeable — and every big deal will need to price in the court risk.
Deal Radar — Quick Flashes
Santander → TSB: Spain’s Banco Santander struck an all-cash £2.65 billion deal to buy TSB from Sabadell (signed 1 Jul). The move vaults Santander to No. 3 in UK retail deposits and re-ignites talk of a post-Brexit high-street shake-out. Closing is slated for 1H 2026, pending PRA/FCA nods.
KKR vs Advent for Spectris: A rare PE shoot-out in London. Advent clinched board support for a £3.8 billion cash offer on 23 Jun, but KKR fired back on 1 Jul with a sweetened £4.1 billion proposal (96 % premium to pre-rumour price). PUSU clock now ticks to 30 Jul. Shareholders smell a bidding war.
Monte Paschi → Mediobanca: Italy’s state-backed MPS launches its €12 billion hostile tender on 14 Jul, having secured ECB clearance. MPS can waive the 66 % acceptance bar; management says even 35 % gives de-facto control. Mediobanca is arming itself with a €4.9 bn buyback/dividend shield.
UMG → Downtown Music: More than 200 indie-label chiefs petitioned Brussels to probe Universal’s $775 million buy of Downtown Music Holdings, warning it would hand the major unrivalled power over distribution rails like CD Baby & FUGA. The EC is weighing a Phase II.
Mittal / Warburg Pincus → Haier India (49 %): Bharti Airtel founder Sunil Mittal and Warburg have lodged a $720 million joint bid for nearly half of Haier’s India arm. The appliance maker seeks capital for a new Punjab plant; a term-sheet could emerge by month-end.
Chesnara → HSBC Life UK: UK life-pensions consolidator Chesnara agreed to buy HSBC’s closed-book life unit for £260 million cash (announced 3 Jul). Funded via a £140 m rights issue, the deal is expected to close early 2026 and frees HSBC to double-down on Asia.
IPO Window — Spain re-opens: Blackstone-owned casino chain Cirsa lists in Madrid on 9 Jul, seeking €400 million in primary proceeds at a €2.5 billion valuation — the first Spanish IPO since February’s HBX. Books covered within four hours of launch.
BET
ON IT
=
PROGRESS
Contingent contracts cut deadlock
In lab negotiations (618 simulated deals), adding an “if/then” payout clause slashed impasses by 34 % and grew joint value over 15 %. When forecasts diverge, bet on whose prediction proves right—then move on.
Closer Tactic #50 • Deal Engineering
The Nugget:
When parties “agree to disagree,” convert the debate into a wager. A contingent clause ties future cash flows to whichever scenario plays out, letting both sides protect downside while preserving upside.
How to deploy:
- Identify the sticking point (e.g., revenue growth, regulatory timing).
- Write an if/then trigger (“If FY26 sales > $120 m, seller earns +$25 m”).
- Define trusted measurement sources and a clear audit window.
Takeaway:
Turning predictions into payoffs reframes a fight as a friendly bet. Use contingencies to unlock stalled deals and capture value neither side wants to leave on the table.
If you love The Closer, you’ll also love Whale Hunting, where the team at Project Brazen explore the hidden world of money and power every week.
