Good morning and welcome to The Closer, the newsletter all about deals. It’s Monday, June 23rd, 2025, and oil is back at the center of the market story. A Middle East flashpoint – the U.S. joining Israel in airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites – has sent crude prices surging and forced investors to rewrite their playbooks. Brent crude spiked to five-month highs on the news, underscoring how a geopolitical escalation can upend inflation bets, corporate strategies, and dealmaking plans overnight. This week, oil is the lead theme, overshadowing even the biggest M&A headlines as global markets grapple with the fallout.
Plus: oil transport costs surge, Fed recalibrates, M&A jitters return, $10B Lakers sale, hostile bid for GMS, and a negotiation trick backed by science.
(Don't miss the Negotiation Nugget at the bottom: this week it's all about the power of open-ended questions).
U.S.–Iran Escalation Ignites Oil Shock
Oil Shockwave. Brent crude initially surged over 5% to about $81 a barrel after U.S. strikes “obliterated” key Iranian nuclear sites, before paring back to around $78 as immediate supply fears ebbed. Still, the geopolitical risk premium is unmistakably back. In the ten days since Israel’s initial attack on June 13, Brent has climbed roughly 13%, putting energy prices firmly on every investor’s radar. The sudden U.S. intervention – joining Israel in targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities – marks a tipping point that is forcing analysts to recalculate everything from inflation forecasts to corporate risk exposure.
Join The Closer to read the rest of this week's briefing, including an exclusive analysis of Middle East events and oil price impacts since 1990.
