From the Gulf War to the Gaza crisis, oil markets have reacted in strange ways. Sometimes they panic—sometimes they shrug. This interactive timeline from The Closer lets you track how Brent crude has responded to two decades of turmoil.
CHART OF THE WEEK
Market Moves: 2 Months After Mideast Events
S&P 500 vs. Brent Crude Performance
Gulf War I (1990)
-11.5%
+89.3%
Desert Storm (1991)
+18.3%
-31.2%
Iraq War (2003)
+10.5%
-21.4%
Israel-Hezbollah (2006)
+3.3%
-14.7%
Arab Spring (2011)
+1.4%
+18.0%
Syria Chemical (2013)
+3.5%
-0.7%
Aramco Drone Attack (2019)
+4.0%
+1.9%
Soleimani Strike (2020)
-7.3%
-25.0%
Israel-Hamas (2023) Current
+6.1%
-22.6%
KEY PATTERN
Markets typically recover within 2 months. Only Gulf War I saw sustained oil spike (+89.3%). Most conflicts see oil retreat as supply fears ease, while equities show remarkable resilience.
MARKET ANALYSIS
Mideast Crisis Market Impact
2-Month Returns: S&P 500 vs. Brent Crude
S&P 500 →
Brent →
Both Up
Oil Up
Stocks Down
Both Down
Stocks Up
Oil Down
6 of 9
Stocks up, Oil down
2 of 9
Both negative
1 of 9
Oil spike only
Event Key →
GW1: Gulf War I (1990)
DS: Desert Storm (1991)
IW: Iraq War (2003)
IH: Israel-Hezbollah (2006)
AS: Arab Spring (2011)
SC: Syria Chemical (2013)
AD: Aramco Drone (2019)
SS: Soleimani Strike (2020)
2023: Israel-Hamas (Current)
THE PATTERN
Most Mideast crises follow a predictable path: initial oil spike fears give way to supply normalization, while equities prove resilient. The 2023 conflict fits this pattern perfectly – stocks up, oil down after 2 months.
HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE
Three Decades of Mideast Crises
Market reactions have evolved over time
1990-1991
Gulf War I → Desert Storm
Initial invasion:
S&P -11.5% | Oil +89.3%
Liberation:
S&P +18.3% | Oil -31.2%
2003
Iraq War
S&P +10.5% | Oil -21.4%
Quick victory expectations = muted impact
2006
Israel-Hezbollah War
S&P +3.3% | Oil -14.7%
2011
Arab Spring
S&P +1.4% | Oil +18.0%
Regional instability = sustained oil premium
2013
Syria Chemical Weapons
S&P +3.5% | Oil -0.7%
2019-2020
Aramco Attack → Soleimani Strike
Aramco drones:
S&P +4.0% | Oil +1.9%
Soleimani:
S&P -7.3% | Oil -25.0%
2023-2024
Israel-Hamas War
S&P +6.1% | Oil -22.6%
Following the pattern: Initial spike fears gave way to market resilience
Average S&P Return
+3.8%
After 2 months
Average Oil Move
-2.4%
After 2 months
HISTORICAL LESSON
Over 30 years, markets have learned to look through Mideast tensions. The Gulf War remains the outlier – the only crisis to sustain an oil spike. Modern conflicts see faster normalization as supply chains adapt and strategic reserves deploy.
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